Comparative Evaluation of Derived and Previously Published Models for Estimating Annual Runoff in the Mountainous Watersheds of Sulaimani Province

Ahmad Abdulrahman, Farhan and HAMA KARIM, TARIQ (2024) Comparative Evaluation of Derived and Previously Published Models for Estimating Annual Runoff in the Mountainous Watersheds of Sulaimani Province. Passer Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences, 6 (2). pp. 369-380. ISSN 27065952

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Abstract

Water availability estimation is critically needed in order to maximize water use for a range of uses. As in other similar regions, the majority of the watersheds in the study area are ungauged, necessitating the use of empirical models to estimate runoff indirectly. The required data for three watersheds were generated before developing a local model and before evaluating a host of empirical models. The watersheds were situated to the east of Sulaimani, Iraqi Kurdistan, and described with particular reference to climate, soil, land use/landcover and, morphometric characteristics. The tested models included: Inglis and De Souza, Khosla, Justin, Lacey, Turc, Indian Irrigation Department, Coutagine, Indian Council of Agricultural Research, and the Soil Conservation Service – Curve Number, as well as a locally derived model. Several performance indicators were used as criteria for ranking the empirical models using the compromise programming index. The analysis of annual rainfall and temperature recorded at the surrounding stations revealed that the Empirical Bayesian Kriging is the best scheme for interpolation in the northeast of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region. Moreover, the results indicated that the annual runoff coefficient was below 6%, and most of the rainfall time series recorded at nearby stations exhibited an insignificant declining trend. Also, a non-linear multivariate model was developed for the study area for predicting annual runoff with annual rainfall, temperature, and length of the main channel as input variables. Furthermore, the analysis of the compromise programming index revealed that the suggested model ranked highest among the assessed models, followed by the Soil Conservation Service – Curve Number and Turc models.

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